Tài liệu JISC: Learned Society Open Access Business Models ppt

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• From the results reported by publishers across STM publishing including the
exclusively OA publishers, there is not yet a strong and positive ‘pull’ from the
author community for OA of their articles despite increased financial support
from funding agencies. Such a change may take a long time. Nevertheless a
market is emerging for the price of publishing an article OA within existing (and
newly launched) journals with OA fees ranging from $500 to $3,000 per article.
• Generic steps in considering a transition towards OA are presented (see Section
6). Key considerations and possible actions at the individual journal level are
proposed based on the detailed information provided by the publishers who
agreed to participate in the study.
• Opinions have been expressed that removing print would lower the costs of the
OA business model (and publication costs in general). Naturally this is true but
analysis of the purely print revenues and costs across 12 journals (see Section
6) included in the study show that revenues would fall more than costs and as a
result publishing surplus would fall based on 2004 figures if print subscriptions
no longer existed.
• If the variable costs of print are subtracted from 2004 costs then the average
publishing cost per article falls to £956 and per page to £97. Averages cover a
broad range across the journals analysed.
• Conclusions and recommendations arising from the results of the study are
included as Section 7
.
• Appendix 1
includes tools that publishers may find helpful in analysing
information about their journals as they consider a transition to OA or more
broadly the print to online transition that is underway.
• Appendix 2
includes brief Case Studies of each of the nine publishers who
participated in the study.
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2. Methodology and overview of the publishers in the study

Nine learned society publishers agreed to take part in this study by responding to an
invitation posted on two key list-servs as follows:
“JISC wishes to elucidate in detail if and how learned society publishers can consider
making a transition to a sustainable open access business model, and what the funding
sources and requirements would need to be in order to do so. JISC is seeking UK-based
societies to participate in a Business Model study by providing information which will be
used in complete confidence to develop a number of case s udies.”


t
t r


In subsequent communication by e-mail and by telephone to find out if participation
would be possible to the timescale required for this study all of the publishers were
assured that:
“All of the information you provide will be held in complete confidence and not divulged
to JISC. The publishers involved in this study will not be identified publicly and care will
be taken to ensure tha the identity of the journals on which the cases a e based cannot
be deduced.”

As a result the numbering system used to identify publishers in this report is deliberately
inconsistent; only the participating publishers themselves will know which columns of
figures and case studies refer to their own journals.

Eight of the publishers were based in the UK and one in the USA. In total these
publishers provided detailed circulation and profit and loss information about 13
journals. One journal is fully Open Access (producer pays) and so no circulation figures
are included and two publishers of the nine were unable to provide the full three years
of profit and loss data as requested.

All of the publishers can be described as not-for-profit and all use the surplus generated
by publishing to support other activities central to their mission as a learned society.

The nine publishers account for the circulation, revenue and costs of their journals in
quite different versions. In order to compare the overall changes taking place over the
past 3 complete fiscal years it was essential to establish a common approach and so
publishers were asked to supply information about one or more of their journals within
two templates (see Appendix 1
):
• Authors and Readers
• Profit and Loss

In addition face-to-face interviews were conducted with each of the publishers during
April and May 2005 and the responses to those interviews in combination with the
completed templates were used to develop a case study for each publisher, which is
included as Appendix 2.
Interviews also provided an opportunity to talk through and
clarify the information provided by the publisher.




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The nine study participants are active in the following areas of STM publishing:
Clinical medicine: 2 publishers
Biomedicine: 1 publisher
Applied Biology: 2 publishers
Science: 1 publisher
Technology: 2 publishers

Plus one publisher active in both the life and physical sciences.

About the sample of journals


Frequency
Number of journals
24 x year 1
12 x year 9
6 x year 2
4 x year 1

The content published varied as would be expected across traditional STM areas with
some journals including extensive mathematical setting, numerous graphs and charts
and very little colour and others frequently including illustrations such as half-tone
photomicrographs or four colour histopathology figures.


Length of article also varied by broad discipline (see Table 4.3) and within the
“Information for Authors” for each journal, maximum and optimal article lengths are
provided by the publishers.


One of the journals is already fully OA, and one has been experimenting with a hybrid
OA model where if authors wish to pay a fee their article is OA from the date of
publication. Several of the other participants are interested in experimenting although
justified nervousness about the impact of such an experiment on overall business
performance is likely to lead to more cautious experimentation with small and less
critical journals.

Four of the 13 journals publish considerable numbers of pages of specially
commissioned review and commentary about current research topics. The remaining
nine journals are more typically ‘learned journals’ in content and presentation with little
or no context or interpretation of the research provided explicitly for readers.
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3. Circulation patterns
Circulation data by subscriber category was available for 12 journals from 8 publishers.

Overview of circulation and pricing patterns
Feature: The number of publishers with:- N= 8
falling Member print subscriptions 8
online available to Members or individual
subscribers
3
increasing Member online subscriptions 0
falling institutional print subscriptions 4 out of 4 offering print only subs
increasing institutional online subscriptions 3 out of 4 offering online only subs
unbundled pricing 2002-2004 4
only bundled pricing 2002-2004 4
site licenses 7

Print and online trends
Publishers varied in their subscription offerings over the three year period reviewed-
some offering online only, some print
or
online and some print
and
online (bundled
subscription). All of the publishers were producing online versions of the journals
surveyed throughout the three-year period 2003-2004 and many have been full text
online since the mid-1990’s. Pricing models changed during the three years as did
purchasing behaviours as is clear from changes in circulation by version and by
customer segment described in this section.
• Print only subscription numbers (including Members) to the 12 journals for which
the complete three years of circulation data was available fell by 2,970 or 43%
between the end of 2002 and 2004.
• Online only subscription numbers fell by 1,070 or 6% between the end of 2002
and 2004.
• Print and online (bundled) subscription numbers fell by 4% from 2002 to the end
of 2004. In the UK and Europe the shift to unbundled pricing is being hampered
by Value Added Tax (VAT) which is payable at 17.5% on online subscriptions
sold separately from print. Several publishers viewed this additional tax as a
limiting factor in their switch to online only subscriptions and feel that VAT
effectively removes a large proportion of the cost savings that would be available
to institutions if they could purchase online only since VAT cannot be reclaimed
by these institutions. For the US publisher this is not an issue at the individual
publisher level and they have been selling unbundled online only access through
two aggregators throughout the three years.
• Site license numbers certainly grew through the period, but most of these
learned society publishers have limited sales and marketing resources of their
own and so site license sales are handled by a third party, either a publishing
partner or through agreements such as the ALPSP Learned Journal Collection
which is being sold by the subscription agent SWETS. Exact numbers of site
licensees were often not provided by the publisher as they may see these
incorporated within the total online subscription number reports provided or
simply have the name of consortia, which comprise many institutions served with
a journals collection.

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My impression is that the subscription pricing models for this sample of publishers often
did not reflect the added value and usage of an online site license because many priced
a license at the same price as a single online institutional subscription and this price was
in turn always based on the single subscription print price.

Subscribers
Members
Chart 3.1: Total Member subscriptions by version: 2002-2004 (12 journals)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Number of subscribers
Print
2174 1999 1792
Online
13938 13621 13801
Both
1740 1831 2115
Tot al
17852 17451 17708
2002 2003 2004

Member subscriptions account for almost two thirds of all subscriptions in terms of
numbers for the publishers. However there is a sharp difference between the UK and US
publishers with respect to policies on Member subscriptions. Of the 17,289 Member
subscribers in 2004, 13,616 (78% of the total Member subs) are to the two US journals.
Members of the US society received an online subscription as part of their Membership
throughout the period with no additional payment due; in addition a print subscription is
available at a very low Member price. In the UK all but one society publisher requires an
additional separate payment for a Member to receive a journal subscription whether it is
print or online, and this clearly affects total Member subscription numbers. See Table
3.2.

Table 3.2: Member subscriptions by country- 12 journals
Country of publisher End 2002 End 2004 Change % Change
US (2 journals)
14,250 13,616 -634 -4.4%
UK (10 journals)
3,602 3,673 +71 +2%
Total
17,852 17,289 -563 -3%

In 2004, Members accounted for 2% of the total subscription revenue received but were
63% of the total number of subscriptions fulfilled. The result is a clear imbalance
between revenue and costs of this subscriber segment. Several of the UK publishers
have recently started to offer online only subscriptions to Members often at a substantial
discount as part of their strategy to convert Members to online only access.

Member print copies fell by just 382 or 18% over the three years, while online only
subscriptions offered by just 3 publishers remained fairly flat down by just 137 (- 1%).
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Combined print and online subscriptions for Members grew by 375 (+22%) with losses
in this category by the US publisher being more than offset by gains from the UK
publishers.
Institutions
Institutional subscriptions represent one third of all the subscriptions sold to the 12
journals whose business model includes subscription-controlled access. Institutional
subscription revenues provided 97% of total subscription revenues in 2004. The pattern
of change for all the institutional subscriptions to the 12 journals is shown in Chart 3.3
.

Chart 3.3: Total Institutional subscriptions 2002-2004 by version: (12 journals)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Number of subscribers
Print
4603 2863 2031
Online
1721 2247 2124
Print + Online
6323 6025 5723
Total Institutional subs
12647 11135 9878
2002 2003 2004


All versions of institutional subscriptions fell to account for the steep 22% drop overall.
The steepest was institutional print subscriptions, which fell by 2,031 (56%).

Of course it is impossible to consider individual subscription counts by institution as a
measure of access when most of the publishers offer site-wide access to the online
version. Adding in the number of site licenses sold would show an increase in the
numbers of institutions this group of publishers are reaching. Not all the publishers are
offering site licenses and several were not sure to what extent individual institutional
subscription sales are being cannibalized by sub-licensed third party aggregator sales of
online access to individual institutions and to consortia.

Four of the publishers were offering online only subscriptions and these increased by
403 (23%) in the three years. Although all of these publishers are experiencing a
downward trend in their overall institutional subscription numbers, for a sub-set this was
especially marked, notably in the life sciences. In contrast one technology society
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publisher has been developing their international sales to institutions and recorded a 7%
growth in institutional subscription numbers over the three years.

Table 3.4
compares changes in institutional subscriber numbers for the 10 UK based
journals with the two US based journals where overall the loss has been less steep.

Table 3.4: Institutional subscriptions by country
Country of
publisher
End 2002 End 2004 Change % Change
US (2 journals)
1108 1029 -79 -7%
UK (10 journals)
12,330 8,251 -4,079 -33%
Total
13,438 9,280 -4158 -31%

Non-Member individuals
Just 4 of the 8 publishers offered Non-Member individual or personal subscriptions and
this category represented just 2% of the total paid subscriptions in 2004. Typically a
learned society may not offer this price category preferring to focus on recruiting
Members and offering them discounted subscriptions as a benefit of Membership. Non-
Member individual subscription numbers fell dramatically (minus 70%) as shown in
Chart 3.5
. Three of the publishers offered online only to Non-Member individual
subscribers through the period.

Chart 3.5: Total Non-Member individual subscriber numbers 2002 to 2004 by version: 12
journals
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Number of subscribers
Print
111 92 95
Online
1646 1860 310
Both
307 318 220
Total
2064 2270 625
2002 2003 2004

Background
A steady fall in the numbers of print subscriptions to all journals has been taking place in
the past 25 years and most steeply in the past 5 years. The reasons for this are
numerous but include:
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• Increasing
price
of periodical subscriptions particularly to institutions.
• Increasing
numbe s
of journals with more “twigging” into specialist fields where the
potential number of subscribers is often small.
r
r r t
•
Fewer non-Membe personal subsc ip ions
since these subscribers are most sensitive
to pricing and most affected by the increase in publication prices and now also have
more widespread online institutional access.
• Increasing
availability of online versions
of print journals that because they are
immediate, searchable, and linked into other relevant online information sources
result in productivity gains for the end user.
• Libraries cancelling multiple print copies with the growth of online access.
• Libraries adopting a policy of online only if print and online are available, due both to
budgetary restraints and user preference, especially in science.

The current rate of attrition in periodicals subscriptions year on year is in the range of
3% to 5%. Many large publishers often actively promote more dramatic swings as they
make all their information available online at an institutional price that favours
purchasing the entire database versus individual titles. The current trend, which is also
driven by budget shortages, is for more customized groupings of titles rather than the
entire collection. However, researchers working within any institution, whether
academic, corporate or government lab, are now able to access all the information they
may have considered buying in print for themselves, through their library network.

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4. The journals business
What are the costs?
Publishing costs can be divided into two component categories:
fixed
costs that are
incurred regardless of the number of subscribers and
variable
costs that are associated
with each subscription.

Fixed costs
involve both content creation and publishing support activities:
• Content creation
costs are all the costs associated with preparing the editorial
content for publication. It includes the editorial office costs of salaries and space and
reviewing, editing, SGML/HTML/XML coding and composition of both articles and
non-article content such as letters to the editor, book reviews and advertising all in
preparation for print and online distribution.
• Publishing support
activities are journal costs such as marketing, advertising sales,
finance, and administration, including management costs and the office costs of
these activities.

Variable costs
include
• Manufacturing
and paper, printing, and binding. Production of the online version
including re-packaging of content.
• Distribution
costs of the physical publication or as an online product. Order fulfilment
- subscriber file maintenance and customer service for all subscriber types.

For reference
Incremen al costs
(or run-on costs) are those just attributable to each
additional subscription – such as the printing, distribution, and subscriber file
maintenance of one subscription. Societies often price their Member copies based on
incremental or run-on costs.
t

The costs for all the journals included in the study have been sorted as accurately as
possible from the data supplied by the publishers according to these fixed and variable
categories.

Note: One of the journals included is fully Open Access and online only and so there are
no print manufacturing, production or order fulfilment costs incurred. Two of the
publishers of two of the 13 journals were either unable to provide the full three years of
data or to separate content creation costs from manufacturing and production costs.
These two journals were therefore excluded from all the year on year cost (and
revenue) comparisons in the report. To make the cost analysis clear the number of
journals included in each part is provided here.
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Table 4.1: Total fixed and variable costs in 2004: All journals
2004: Costs in
£,000 to nearest
£1,000 Total Ave
Publisher 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 2 2
Frequency 12 x 12 x 12 x 24 x 12 x 4 x 12 x 12 x 12 x 24 x 6 x 6 x
Content creation 118 114 133 207 31 82 73 113 196 428 78 47 1,620 135
Manf & Prod
PRINT 89 115 79 162 65
online
only 31 125 80 418 8 25 1,197 100
Manf & Prod
ONLINE
2
n/a n/a n/a n/a 5 19 n/a 12 6 65 5 5 117 10
Distribution &
Fulfilment PRINT 30 33 39 76 23
online
only 15 77 61 161 18 10 543 45
Distribution &
Fulfilment
ONLINE
6 7 8 11 8 7 0 n/a 11 n/a 4 4 66.3 6
Publishing
Support
81 83 145 118 63 132 48 216 62 126 31 22 1,127 94

Total Costs 324 352 404 574 195 240 64 167 543 416 1198 144 113 4,734 364
Articles
published
155 182 181 507 140 203 66 129 317 233 631 292 165 3201 246
Cost/article (£) £2,090 £1,934 £2,232 £1,132 £1,393 £1,182 £970 £1,297 £1,713£1,785 £1,899 £493 £685 18,805 £1,447
Pages
published 2,788 1,871 3,611 2,944 1,632 3,695 912 1,593 1,511 2,048 6,546 2,220 1,212 32,583 2,506
Cost/page (£) £116 £188 £112 £195 £119 £65 £70 £105 £359 £203 £183 £65 £93 £1,874 £144


Table 4.1
shows total fixed and variable costs by publisher with publisher names
replaced by numbers for anonymity.
Notice the cost/journal/year in 2004 which ranges from £64,000 for a quarterly journal
from publisher 6 with a total print circulation of 700 of which 91% are industry
sponsored subscriptions, to £1.2 million for a journal from publisher 1 publishing just
under 1,000 print copies and publishing over 6,500 pages per year in 24 issues per year.

Analysis of these actual cost figures based on pages published shows a range of from
£65 per page for an online only journal to £359 per page for a print and online journal.

From this data the cost per article and cost per page appear also to be driven by journal
frequency because the quarterly and bimonthly titles have among the lowest total per
article and per page costs.

The variable costs of print as defined at the beginning of this section are shown for 11
of these journals in Table 4.2
.

2
n/a= separate costs not available - included within other lines
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